Will Venezuela return to its former glory days?

Charles Patterson, CFA

January 7, 2026

Will Venezuela return to its former glory days now? Do such days even exist? When viewed through historical data, the picture isn’t clear. The path ahead appears more difficult and the challenges more endemic than might seem evident at first glance.

Venezuela has a long history of currency controls and multiple exchange rates, with parallel rates transacted on the streets of Caracas at times wholly disconnected from official rates. This makes traditional economic data difficult to understand. In such instances, volume-based indicators that are harder to manipulate can be more useful. Energy consumption, while not perfect, is often a useful proxy for real overall economic activity. Volume production figures for key goods can offer some insight into whether the country is still “making things.” We have collected four such datasets below:

Looking at this data for Venezuela is sobering. The country experienced roughly two decades of stagnation in energy consumption per capita even before the Chavez era. Even more dramatic is the long-term decline in oil production starting in the 1970s. Steel and cereal production show minimal if any growth for at least a decade preceding Chavez. These patterns mostly continued through the 2000s and deteriorated precipitously about ten years ago, when nearly all series, cereal production being the exception, fell to levels below lows last recorded in the mid-1960s.

Venezuela has struggled to keep inflation under control for many decades. Excessive inflation has been a recurring feature since at least the 1970s, with periods of double-digit inflation more common than not. The recent figures (the largest of which extend well beyond the scale of the axis) represent an intensification rather than a break from historical precedent.

Maybe with new leadership things can turn around for the country. Even if the country can revert to the levels seen during the Chavez years it would represent a massive economic expansion — a surprising statement. Certainly, inflation at pre-Maduro levels would be welcomed. Still, Venezuela’s historical record suggests that restoring sustainable economic stability will require addressing long-persisting structural challenges, and not merely changing the person at the top.